Dear Members,
I have been following Gender Community’s on-field learning event in Puri, wherein the focus is on water-logged areas and making communities resilient under the UNDP-AusAid Climate Change Adaptation Project. I am taking the opportunity to share some of my thoughts.
Impact due to climate change
The existing problems of poor farmers, if not addressed in time, will get more acute in the coming decades due to global warming and climate change. The prediction so far suggests an upward trend in mean monthly temperature and average rainfall, but downward trend in the number of wet days in a year. The impact of climate change would be seen in terms of increased sub-regional variations and more extreme rain events, and the number of days it rains may further go down in future. In a country which already gets rain for less than 100 hours in a year (a year has 8760 hours), this would be disastrous.
The rate of carbon dioxide release into the atmosphere has increased 30 times during the last 3-4 decades. It is estimated that a 0.5 degree Celsius rise in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 tonne per hectare. A recent World Bank report looked at two drought prone regions in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, and one flood prone region in Orissa, and found that climate change could have the following serious impacts:
• In Andhra Pradesh, dryland farmers may see their incomes plunge by 20%.
• In Maharashtra, sugarcane yields may fall dramatically by 25-30%.
• In Orissa, flooding will rise dramatically leading to a drop in rice yields by as much as 12% in some districts.
Other effects of climate change are more pronounced. For instance, rise in sea levels, say about a meter by the next century, may displace millions of people. Sea level rise would lead to ingress of saline water and salination of ground water and surface water in coastal areas. Salt water intrusion from sea level rise in low-lying agricultural plains could lead to food insecurity, further spread of water-related diseases, and reduced freshwater supplies.
With melting glaciers, flood risks would increase in the near future. In the long term, there can be no replacement for the water provided by glaciers, which could result in water shortages on an unparalleled scale. Floods and drought are thus projected to multiply as a consequence of climate change leading to huge crop loss and leaving large patches of arable land unfit for cultivation and hence, threatening food security.
Adapting strategies
While knowledge about the impact of climate change on current water and crop production is still nascent, mitigating and bringing a halt to climate change is not within the capability of one country alone. Hence adaptation strategies by Indian government are more likely to save livelihoods and ensure food security than mitigation strategies.
At the outset we need to maintain the sustainability of water based ecosystems by ensuring adequate water supplies to meet the food and non-food needs of a growing population. As agriculture is the largest user of water in India, using more than 80% of usable freshwater, and a large proportion of the population derives its livelihood directly or indirectly from it, we need to build efficient irrigation systems and water conservation strategies, especially in semi-arid regions, through conjunctive use of surface and groundwater in India.
The main thrust of the programmes to combat the impact of climate change in the rainfed areas should be on activities relating to rainwater harvesting, soil conservation, land shaping, pasture development, vegetative bunding, and water resources conservation on the basis of the entire compact micro-watershed which would include both cultivated and uncultivated lands. In the preparation of the watershed development plans, for which NREGS funds could also be tapped, user groups and other people depending directly on the watershed should be actively involved. However, there are strong social and political constraints why success so far has been modest.
Although the Ministries of Agriculture and Rural Development have implemented watershed projects for more than a decade, evaluation reports have shown that these cannot succeed without full participation of project beneficiaries and careful attention to issues of social organisation. This is because success depends on consensus among a large number of users. Moreover, collective capability is required for management of commons and for new structures created during the project. Then the costs and benefits of watershed interventions are location-specific and unevenly distributed among the people affected. Unfortunately most projects have failed to generate sustainability because of the failure of government agencies to involve the people and build their social capital. Finally, there is political reluctance to control water hungry crops in low rainfall regions, such as sugarcane in Maharashtra and paddy in Punjab. One would need stricter implementation of environmentally sound cropping patterns, and unrestricted mining of groundwater. Incentives should be given to farmers to persuade them to move away from crops that tempt them to ‘steal’ water from their neighbours.
In view of the impending threats caused by climate change, regulating the unrestrained exploitation for groundwater and aggressive pursuit of water conservation should become a national priority. Drip irrigation and water sprinkler approach, mulching and bed plantation, construction of tanks and check-dams should be promoted for water harvesting and conservation. Its impact is visible in Alwar region of Rajasthan, wherein barren lands were converted into lush fields. Dried up rivers got rejuvenated by making ‘Johads’, small earthen check dams.
Plants in the forest area are natural carbon sinks. A programme for massive tree plantation and control on open grazing will help in the regeneration of the forests and slow down the process of desertification. Several agroforestry models are complementary in so far as tree-crop interaction is concerned. For instance, trees may fertilise the soil for agricultural crops, or may provide shade from sun or shelter from wind. Complementary relationship between trees and crops may also be in labour use, especially when the two outputs draw labour resources at different times of the year.
With unpredictable weather in future, farmers will have to change crop management practices, grow tougher plant varieties and be prepared for constant innovation in the way they operate. One adaptive measure with changed climate to sustain wheat productivity would be introduction of longer duration and one week early planting varieties. In some areas one may consider developing strategies for crop substitution where needed; thus replace wheat with millets, tubers like potato, yams and cassava.
As occurrence of floods is likely to increase in many parts of India, one needs better systems for detection and forecasting of floods and popularise rainfall tolerant and short duration varieties, or shift cropping pattern to the rabi season by increasing access to irrigation in those months. Income diversification provides a robust way of mitigating flood risks. In coastal areas aquaculture holds considerable potential if the supply chain and marketing are improved.
Summing up
It should be kept in mind that the most vulnerable to climate change are the poor in India, who have limited resources and whose assets and livelihoods are tied to climate-sensitive factors of production. Therefore greater political and bureaucratic attention is needed to diversify their livelihoods and reduce their vulnerability. This would need investments in sectors other than crop production too, such as a significant increase of targeted investments in nutrition programs, clinics, disease control, irrigation, rural electrification, rural roads, and other basic investments, especially in central and eastern India.
Lastly, we need to build administrative capacities for designing climate proof investments, such as conservation of wetlands, wastewater reclamation, equitable access, and regulatory structures for basin level management. In addition, resource mobilization, promoting insurance and agribusiness are other major strategies to protect against risk of production loss due to calamities caused by climate change, like floods, droughts, pests and diseases. Greater and imaginative governmental intervention would also need an efficient and professional administration that is tuned to the emerging but uncertain crises caused by global warming and climate change.
I have been following Gender Community’s on-field learning event in Puri, wherein the focus is on water-logged areas and making communities resilient under the UNDP-AusAid Climate Change Adaptation Project. I am taking the opportunity to share some of my thoughts.
Impact due to climate change
The existing problems of poor farmers, if not addressed in time, will get more acute in the coming decades due to global warming and climate change. The prediction so far suggests an upward trend in mean monthly temperature and average rainfall, but downward trend in the number of wet days in a year. The impact of climate change would be seen in terms of increased sub-regional variations and more extreme rain events, and the number of days it rains may further go down in future. In a country which already gets rain for less than 100 hours in a year (a year has 8760 hours), this would be disastrous.
The rate of carbon dioxide release into the atmosphere has increased 30 times during the last 3-4 decades. It is estimated that a 0.5 degree Celsius rise in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 tonne per hectare. A recent World Bank report looked at two drought prone regions in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, and one flood prone region in Orissa, and found that climate change could have the following serious impacts:
• In Andhra Pradesh, dryland farmers may see their incomes plunge by 20%.
• In Maharashtra, sugarcane yields may fall dramatically by 25-30%.
• In Orissa, flooding will rise dramatically leading to a drop in rice yields by as much as 12% in some districts.
Other effects of climate change are more pronounced. For instance, rise in sea levels, say about a meter by the next century, may displace millions of people. Sea level rise would lead to ingress of saline water and salination of ground water and surface water in coastal areas. Salt water intrusion from sea level rise in low-lying agricultural plains could lead to food insecurity, further spread of water-related diseases, and reduced freshwater supplies.
With melting glaciers, flood risks would increase in the near future. In the long term, there can be no replacement for the water provided by glaciers, which could result in water shortages on an unparalleled scale. Floods and drought are thus projected to multiply as a consequence of climate change leading to huge crop loss and leaving large patches of arable land unfit for cultivation and hence, threatening food security.
Adapting strategies
While knowledge about the impact of climate change on current water and crop production is still nascent, mitigating and bringing a halt to climate change is not within the capability of one country alone. Hence adaptation strategies by Indian government are more likely to save livelihoods and ensure food security than mitigation strategies.
At the outset we need to maintain the sustainability of water based ecosystems by ensuring adequate water supplies to meet the food and non-food needs of a growing population. As agriculture is the largest user of water in India, using more than 80% of usable freshwater, and a large proportion of the population derives its livelihood directly or indirectly from it, we need to build efficient irrigation systems and water conservation strategies, especially in semi-arid regions, through conjunctive use of surface and groundwater in India.
The main thrust of the programmes to combat the impact of climate change in the rainfed areas should be on activities relating to rainwater harvesting, soil conservation, land shaping, pasture development, vegetative bunding, and water resources conservation on the basis of the entire compact micro-watershed which would include both cultivated and uncultivated lands. In the preparation of the watershed development plans, for which NREGS funds could also be tapped, user groups and other people depending directly on the watershed should be actively involved. However, there are strong social and political constraints why success so far has been modest.
Although the Ministries of Agriculture and Rural Development have implemented watershed projects for more than a decade, evaluation reports have shown that these cannot succeed without full participation of project beneficiaries and careful attention to issues of social organisation. This is because success depends on consensus among a large number of users. Moreover, collective capability is required for management of commons and for new structures created during the project. Then the costs and benefits of watershed interventions are location-specific and unevenly distributed among the people affected. Unfortunately most projects have failed to generate sustainability because of the failure of government agencies to involve the people and build their social capital. Finally, there is political reluctance to control water hungry crops in low rainfall regions, such as sugarcane in Maharashtra and paddy in Punjab. One would need stricter implementation of environmentally sound cropping patterns, and unrestricted mining of groundwater. Incentives should be given to farmers to persuade them to move away from crops that tempt them to ‘steal’ water from their neighbours.
In view of the impending threats caused by climate change, regulating the unrestrained exploitation for groundwater and aggressive pursuit of water conservation should become a national priority. Drip irrigation and water sprinkler approach, mulching and bed plantation, construction of tanks and check-dams should be promoted for water harvesting and conservation. Its impact is visible in Alwar region of Rajasthan, wherein barren lands were converted into lush fields. Dried up rivers got rejuvenated by making ‘Johads’, small earthen check dams.
Plants in the forest area are natural carbon sinks. A programme for massive tree plantation and control on open grazing will help in the regeneration of the forests and slow down the process of desertification. Several agroforestry models are complementary in so far as tree-crop interaction is concerned. For instance, trees may fertilise the soil for agricultural crops, or may provide shade from sun or shelter from wind. Complementary relationship between trees and crops may also be in labour use, especially when the two outputs draw labour resources at different times of the year.
With unpredictable weather in future, farmers will have to change crop management practices, grow tougher plant varieties and be prepared for constant innovation in the way they operate. One adaptive measure with changed climate to sustain wheat productivity would be introduction of longer duration and one week early planting varieties. In some areas one may consider developing strategies for crop substitution where needed; thus replace wheat with millets, tubers like potato, yams and cassava.
As occurrence of floods is likely to increase in many parts of India, one needs better systems for detection and forecasting of floods and popularise rainfall tolerant and short duration varieties, or shift cropping pattern to the rabi season by increasing access to irrigation in those months. Income diversification provides a robust way of mitigating flood risks. In coastal areas aquaculture holds considerable potential if the supply chain and marketing are improved.
Summing up
It should be kept in mind that the most vulnerable to climate change are the poor in India, who have limited resources and whose assets and livelihoods are tied to climate-sensitive factors of production. Therefore greater political and bureaucratic attention is needed to diversify their livelihoods and reduce their vulnerability. This would need investments in sectors other than crop production too, such as a significant increase of targeted investments in nutrition programs, clinics, disease control, irrigation, rural electrification, rural roads, and other basic investments, especially in central and eastern India.
Lastly, we need to build administrative capacities for designing climate proof investments, such as conservation of wetlands, wastewater reclamation, equitable access, and regulatory structures for basin level management. In addition, resource mobilization, promoting insurance and agribusiness are other major strategies to protect against risk of production loss due to calamities caused by climate change, like floods, droughts, pests and diseases. Greater and imaginative governmental intervention would also need an efficient and professional administration that is tuned to the emerging but uncertain crises caused by global warming and climate change.
Best Wishes,
N C Saxena
Member National Advisory Council
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